Bonnie, once a major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, has weakened to a post-tropical storm. While it has lost its tropical characteristics, it is still carrying a significant amount of atmospheric moisture with its remnants; it is likely some of that moisture will rain-out over Hawaii in the coming days. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued its last advisory on Bonnie, it has issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Darby which is likely to become a hurricane in the coming days.
As of the NHC’s last advisory, Bonnie was located about 1,275 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California. With maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the storm is moving off to the west at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb or 29.80″.
What’s left of Bonnie ie expected to move west and eventually reach Hawaii in the coming days. A westward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. It appears the moisture from Bonnie will first reach the Big Island of Hawaii on Wednesday, July 13, with rain enhanced by the remnants of the storm spreading across much of the state on Thursday and Friday, the 14th and 15th.
Most of Hawaii is suffering from drought conditions and the rain will be much appreciated. However, some rain may fall too heavy, too quickly, especially on easter-facing sides of Hawaii and Maui islands. This could create flood and rockslide concerns there with time.
While Bonnie’s remnants will fall apart and rain itself out over the Pacific Ocean and Hawaii, eyes will then turn to Tropical Storm Darby, which the NHC classified earlier today. Darby is located about 690 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 640 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving to the west at 16 mph now and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The minimum central pressure is down to 1006 mb or 29.71″.
Darby, according to the NHC, should continue moving west, perhaps slowing down in a few days. While maximum sustained winds are only 40 mph now, the NHC believes strengthening will occur, bringing Darby to hurricane status by Monday.
It is too early to know whether Darby will have any direct or indirect impacts to Hawaii. At the very least, swells and perhaps some tropical moisture enhanced rain showers could impact the Aloha State in about a week from now from this storm system.