Florida is witnessing yet another catastrophe in the making as Major Hurricane Milton, a high-end Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, is forecast to become even larger than it is now. In their latest forecast discussion, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida wrote, “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Right now, Hurricane Milton is an extraordinarily severe hurricane. Earlier today it became one of the strongest on record with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, gusts to 220 mph, and a mind-boggling minimum central pressure of 905 mb or 26.49″. Most household barometers cannot read air pressure levels that low. Now it has weakened a bit with pressure up and wind speeds down but this is also a bad sign: it is about to get larger.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton is going through a meteorological process known as an “eye replacement cycle.” In intense hurricanes such as Milton, the outer rainbands of powerful winds and heavy rains strengthen and create a ring of thunderstorms. This new outer eyewall of sorts slowly moves inward towards the center of the tropical cyclone, robbing the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. The storm weakens during this phase as the original inner eyewall is “choked” by the newer outer one. However, the outer eyewall replaces the inner one and if conditions permit, the hurricane can intensify once again.
This process of replacing the eyewall also leads to a larger storm. While winds may go down, albeit only temporarily, storms typically expand in size during this process, increase the area under the storm exposed to hurricane and tropical storm force winds. This means more people could be impacted by the storm since it geographically takes up more space; this could also mean a more significant storm surge. Winds around a hurricane drive storm surge on-land; the larger the wind field, the more water it can surge onto land. So while the windspeed intensity may drop a bit, the storm surge threat could be even worse.
As of the 11pm ET update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Milton had maximum sustained winds of 165 mph and a minimum central pressure of 914 mb. Located 650 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, the hurricane is moving to the east at 9 mph. Milton remains a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.
Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. The NHC says that Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
“This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so,” warns the NHC.
Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula.
“Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday,” says the NHC.
Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat.
