The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released their newest outlook for the Summer of 2023; they’re calling for warmer than normal conditions around much of the country while precipitation is expected to be normal or above normal, with the exception being the southeast coast. The latest CPC outlook shows the probability of above/below normal temperatures and precipitation for June, July, and August 2023.
According to the CPC analysis, large parts of the country are likely to see above normal temperatures, with the best chances for above normal temperatures expected over the northeastern states of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and Connecticut and the southwestern states of Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas. Above normal temperatures are also expected across much of Alaska and Hawaii this summer too. The only place where there’s a 50-50 chance of warmer or cooler than normal temperatures will be over the upper midwest.
The precipitation outlook from the CPC suggests below normal precipitation across the northwestern states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Above normal precipitation is expected around the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys and into the North Mid Atlantic; New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, WestVirginia, and Tenneessee are within a zone where the CPC probability for above-normal precipitation is leaning that way. For much of the rest of the country, the CPC says there’s an equal chance of above normal or below normal precipitation over the summer months of June, July, and August.
The latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is valid for mid-February through to the end of May, shows drought conditions improving or staying the same across the northern half of the American west and much of the Midwest. But it shows worsening conditions across southern Texas, the Florida peninsula, and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. If the CPC summertime outlooks are accurate, these drought conditions may further worsen as summer arrives.