Erin's Forecast Track Shifts Significantly West, Increasing Area on Alert

The threat of damaging winds from Erin over the next 5 days have shifted west, putting some places into a hazard zone. Image: NHC

Tropical Storm Erin continues to spin about and develop over the open waters of the Central Atlantic. Updated computer forecast guidance and the official forecast track released by the National Hurricane Center have shifted the storm’s future track further west which could boost odds of a landfall somewhere.

“Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands,” cautions the National Hurricane Center in their latest storm update. “However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.”

“There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place,” the National Hurricane Center concluded their last update.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Erin is a tropical storm located about 950 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1,635 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph while the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb or 29.71″.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time.

According to the NHC, Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph. A slightly slower westward motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. The NHC says that little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but gradual strengthening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday. Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday and a Major Hurricane with winds of at least 115 mph by Sunday afternoon.

Because the storm is expected to strengthen later in the forecast period, it is also expected to head more west than initially expected. A stronger storm would naturally want to curve to the northwest, but a storm slower to develop would be included to travel more west for now. It is impossible to say with certainty how strong or what direction the storm will take beyond this weekend.

Erin is forecast to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season which started on June 1. The season typically peaks in early September before ending the end of November.