Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall on the Texas coast at Galveston Island yesterday evening, ending any chances of additional strengthening at the time. With thunderstorms sheared off far to the east of the center of circulation, the storm quickly weakened as it moved inland over southeast Texas and lost all of its tropical cyclone characteristics. As of 10 pm last night, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially downgraded the storm to a post-tropical low.

The system brought very heavy rain and flooding to portions of Texas and Louisiana and continues to bring soaking rains to portions of the southeast.

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Unit said this morning, “Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding, some of which are expected to be considerable and life-threatening, will impact portions of southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi over the next 3-5 hours. Additional flash flooding will be possible into central Mississippi and western Alabama.” Rainfall rates of 3″/hour is possible in these areas.

 

Over time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there’s a chance the system could take on tropical cyclone characteristics once again as it exits the Mid Atlantic coast in the coming days.

In their latest Tropical Outlook, the NHC writes, “Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday, as the system moves northeastward at around 15 mph, and emerges offshore the east coast of the United States and into the Western Atlantic Ocean.” However, the NHC believes those odds are relatively low, saying at this time there’s only a 10% chance of formation.

If the storm were to re-form, computer forecast model guidance suggests it would continue marching east out into the open waters of the Atlantic, away from the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast; it would also be traveling east across the Atlantic north of the island of Bermuda.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the Southeast United States during the next day or two.