At the same time the European ECMWF global computer forecast model is suggesting that another significant winter storm could impact portions of the northeast in the coming days, famed groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is forecasting another 6 weeks of winter on Groundhog Day 2021.
At 7:25am, in so-called “Groundhogese”, Phil directed the President and the Inner Circle that surrounds him to his prediction scroll that read:
It is a beautiful morning this I can see,
With all my fans viewing virtually.
With my faithful followers being safe and secure,
Our tradition of Groundhog Day must endure.
We all have passed through the darkness of night,
But now see hope of morning’s bright light.
When I turn to see, there is a perfect shadow cast of me.
Six more weeks of winter there will be!
According to folklore, when the groundhog can see its shadow, there will be another 6 weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, folklore says spring will arrive early.
Groundhog Day 2021 was different from past events due to the ongoing pandemic: no crowd was gathered and Phil’s Inner Circle all donned masks. The event was watched by roughly 15,000 online through a livestream the Groundhog Club set-up.
Before this big day, one of our meteorologists was able to sit down and chat with William Deevey, the president at the time of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. This club functions as the official caretakers of the world’s most famous rodent, Punxsutawney Phil Sowerby, better known as Punxsutawney Phil. This club was started in the 1886 and continues to this day to protect and perpetuate the legend of Punxsutawney Phil, the great weather predicting groundhog. Punxsutawney is located in Jefferson county in northwestern Pennsylvania.
Deevey stands behind Phil’s accuracy ratings. “Phil’s weather prediction is 100% accurate. He has been correct 130 times and wrong 0 times. However, I (Deevey has the honor of retrieving Phil from his hole in the ground) sometimes have trouble understanding Phil, with all the noise occurring on the celebration of this special day and since groundhogs speak a different language than we do. You might say we sometimes have trouble with the translation.”
While the club claims high accuracy, others dispute the findings: the National Weather Service says he only has a 50-50 track record.
Deevery added additional color to the holiday: “The tradition of Phil started in our homeland of Germany. Our ancestors were farmers and eagerly awaited the end of the long German winter so we could begin the process of getting our fields ready for planting our crops. In Germany there were no groundhogs but we did have hedgehogs. They served the same purpose as Phil here. Unfortunately, in the middle of the cold Germanic winter, our hedgehog usually ended up on someone’s dinner plate.”
As these German farmers settled in Pennsylvania, they wanted to hold on to this tradition of the hedgehogs predicting the end of winter. But, finding no hedgehogs in the United States, they settled on a much bigger and furrier rodent, the groundhog. “Our ancestors found this particularly handsome groundhog here and named him Phil Sowerby. We treat him like gold. Do you know that this here groundhog (Phil was sleeping next to Deevey as we chatted) is over 130 years old?”
Deevey explained the magic behind Phil’s old age. “A normal Pennsylvanian groundhog will live on average 4-6 years. But Phil is celebrating his 131st birthday this year. He looks pretty good for 130,huh? Here is the secret, in the late summer the Club makes a trek to Phil’s Stump at Gobbler’s Knob about 4pm and Phil drinks several sips of Groundhog Punch, a secret recipe of the club that aids in Phil’s longevity. Think of it as the fountain of youth for groundhogs. And don’t you get any Ponce de Leon ideas out of this, it only works on groundhogs, not people.”
With a holiday rooted in part fairytale, part magic, and part weather folklore, one can’t take the holiday too seriously. But with forecast models calling for more snow after a record-breaking snowstorm, maybe they should this year.