In their latest update this morning, the National Hurricane Center says an area of showers and storms in the far Atlantic Ocean has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. Computer forecast model guidance that meteorologists use to help with their forecasting have been very bullish that this system will intensify significantly and possibly impact the United States as we head into October as a hurricane –Hurricane Matthew.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands is moving westward at around 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. According to the National Hurricane Center, interests in the Windward Islands, the southern Caribbean Sea, and the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this system.
Beyond there, an impact with the United States is possible. Weather patterns at this point appear to be more favorable to bringing the storm to the US than re-curving it out to sea, as what happened with Tropical Cyclone Karl before brushing Bermuda at the start of this weekend.
Where the storm could impact the United States, or even -if- it does, remains unknown at this time. Computer guidance isn’t leaving anything off the table for now, ranging from Gulf Coast to Florida to East Coast impact threats. It will take the system substantial time to develop and to cross the Atlantic; as such, any impacts, direct or otherwise, would wait until after the start of October.
Matthew is the name to be used for the next named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. Until it becomes a Tropical Storm which would earn it a name, the National Hurricane Center will simply refer to the system as “97L.”
You can get more specifics on this storm as well as any other storm, present or recent past, on our Hurricane & Tropical Weather Page here: https://weatherboy.com/hurricanes-tropical-weather/