Newly formed Hurricane Nolo is located south of the Big Island of Hawaii now; it is forecast to become a major hurricane soon by the weekend as it brings the threat of catastrophic rainfall and wind damage to Hawaii.
As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Nolo was located about 255 miles south of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii and about 435 miles south-southeast of Honolulu on the island of Oahu. Maximum sustained winds were 75 mph while the minimum central pressure was down to 984 mb or 29.06″.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County where a Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Nolo is moving toward the north-northeast now near 5 mph. A faster motion to the north-northeast is expected later tonight through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on Saturday just to the south of the Big Island. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast, and Nolo is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend with maximum sustained winds greater than 115 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday.
For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected in areas that were hit hardest by Hurricane Lala just weeks ago.
For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected.
For Maui, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible there too, especially in areas of high terrain around Haleakala Volcano.
Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 1-3 feet above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east-and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Some isolated tornadoes are also possible on the Big Island, with the greatest threat of tornadoes on Saturday.
