What was left of Hurricane Rafael dissipated in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday, freeing the Atlantic Hurricane Basin of any tropical cyclone. However, a new system could form near Central America in the coming days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while moving slowly westward.

Global computer forecast models used by meteorologists to track and predict activity in the tropics are rather bullish with this system. The latest runs of the European ECMWF and the American GFS forecast models each develop this disturbance eventually into a hurricane with time, moving it into the Gulf of Mexico and threatening the U.S. Gulf Coast with yet another landfall possibility.  However, it would take time for such a system to develop and forecast models aren’t necessarily very accurate in the extended range when it comes to the movement and strength of tropical cyclones.

Should this system become a tropical storm or worse, it would be given the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season list which would be Sara.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of this month; however, some years do produce out-of-season tropical cyclones.