Storms along the Gulf Coast are being monitored for any signs of development, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC.) While the NHC said yesterday it was unlikely for any tropical cyclones to form over the next 5 days, they now say there’s a slight chance that the disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico could evolve into a tropical cyclone with time.
According to the NHC, a surface trough of low pressure is developing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern Louisiana. “Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said in a Tropical Outlook today. For now, there’s only a 10% chance that a tropical cyclone will actually develop here in the coming days.
Even if no tropical cyclone takes shape, locally heavy rains, some heavy enough to create flooding problems, are possible along the Texas coast through the weekend. While the NHC is monitoring the system for any tropical cyclone development, local National Weather Service offices are monitoring the heavy rain threat and will issue flash flood products as needed.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic Hurricane Basin remains quiet and it is unlikely a tropical cyclone will develop anywhere within it over the next 5 days.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November.
Forecasters believe activity in the tropics will pick up significantly in the coming weeks, bringing about an above-normal season in terms of volume and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes.