Tropical Storm Sara continues to produce catastrophic flooding across portions of Central America; while Sara is forecast to continue to saturate the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, eyes are on what will happen with Sara and its remnant moisture next week.
Right now, the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 hours ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The National Hurricane Center says there shouldn’t be much change in strength before Sara makes landfall in Belize; however, some slight strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours while Sara remains over open water. Once Sara moves inland, it should significantly weaken; dynamical forecast models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico.
Officially, the National Hurricane Center says they expect the system to dissipate in about 60 hours as the storm makes its way across the Yucatan Peninsula. However, the global computer forecast models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. Global models suggest this potent system with soaking rains could move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy rains to areas hit earlier this hurricane season by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
For now, the primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.
The National Hurricane Center warns that through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
Beyond there, it’s too soon to say with a high degree of certainty where Sara’s remnants will head, but odds do favor eventual impacts to Florida. The National Hurricane Center will closely monitor the storm and will coordinate with local National Weather Service offices on the Gulf Coast as Sara wraps up its interaction with land over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.
