A tropical disturbance nearing Hawaii is weakening and forecasters with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii no longer expect the system to take on tropical cyclone characteristics with time. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida believed there was a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation here yesterday, but now that the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has tracked the system after it entered their area of responsibility this morning, those odds have dropped down to 340%.
The area of concern consists of an elongated area of low pressure which is located more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Today, it continues to move west at roughly 15 mph. The CPHC says the system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and that environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for development of a tropical depression. The CPHC said in a Tropical Outlook issued this morning that “by Tuesday, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for any further development.”
Elsewhere in the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin which surrounds Hawaii, meteorologists at the CPHC don’t expect any tropical cyclone formation for at least the next 5 days.
While the tropical cyclone threat has diminished, there’s still a risk of heavy downpours over Maui and Hawaii islands. According to the National Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii, showers will continue to ride in on the trades, with an increase in shower coverage expected, especially over the Big Island and windward Maui. “Brief downpours are expected during this time,” wrote the Hawaii forecasters about the heavy rain threat. In a forecast discussion released this morning, they wrote, “Models show increased moisture focusing across the Big Island and windward Maui over the next 24 hours. Heavier showers will affect windward and mountain areas as well as Kona slopes of the Big Island through today. Windward Big Island and Maui will likely see several inches of rain over the next few days. Most of the showers are expected to be moderate in intensity, but the frequency of showers may cause some ponding.”