The National Hurricane Center upgraded the potential tropical cyclone they’ve been tracking in the Gulf of America to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the system is a very disorganized system unlikely to grow more, it is taking advantage of the copious amounts of moisture in the atmosphere to rain down deadly, flooding downpours. At least two people have died in Texas from extremely heavy rain that fell prior to Arthur’s arrival; major flooding hit areas east of Houston today, and more heavy rain is expected along the Texas Gulf Coast and Louisiana today into tomorrow from west to east.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of the new tropical storm was at 28.6 North 95.8 West which is about 40 miles east-northeast of Port O’Connor, Texas and about 190 miles west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Arthur is moving to the northeast at 9 mph and the NHC expects the storm to increase in forward speed. Based on their forecast track, the storm should move more northeast along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana tonight. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves over land. Weakening is anticipated once the low moves inland, and it could dissipate by tonight or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. The NHC reports that NOAA buoy #42035 east of Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph   and a gust of 43 mph . The Scholes International Airport in Galveston recently reported a wind gust of 48 mph.

 

 

 

With tropical storm force winds near the coast, the area under a warning has expanded. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the area from High Island, Texas east to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Sargent, Texas to Highland, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

Tropical storm force wind conditions are expected within the warning area today. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are possible within the watch area today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 2-4 feet  above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide in the area from Port Bolivar, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.

There is also an isolated tornado threat from Arthur. According to the NHC, a couple of tornadoes are possible through Thursday from the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.