After a prolonged quiet period in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, things may be changing in the Gulf where tropical trouble could be brewing. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico which bears watching.

“Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward,” said the NHC in today’s latest Tropical Outlook.

It appears any formation, should it occur, would be slow. The NHC says there’s only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Those odds grow to 50% over the next 7 days. Some computer forecast model guidance, such as the American GFS, suggests this could develop into a named tropical storm with time and directly impact the U.S., but whether that happens or not remains less than certain.

Elsewhere the NHC expects no tropical cyclone formation anywhere else in the Atlantic basin for the next 7 days.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November. The season has yet to produce any hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.