An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The associated convection is not particularly well organized, but there is a curved band located to the north of the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the small circulation center this afternoon. Based on this data, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared this system a tropical storm and initiated advisories for it.




According to the NHC, Don is currently within a low shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is possible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern Caribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong low-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to open up into a trough. As a result of that hostile environment, dissipation is forecast within 72 hours.

Nevertheless, stormy conditions could impact Aruba and nearby islands as soon as Wednesday. Residents and vacationers there and elsewhere in the Caribbean in the path of this storm should closely monitor the tropical forecast for any changes.