Meteorologists with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii gathered today to unveil their seasonal outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. As with the Atlantic Hurricane Season, the season in the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin begins on June 1 and runs through to the end of November. But unlike the Atlantic where a hyperactive, potentially record-breaking season is forecast, meteorologists in Hawaii expect their upcoming season to be below-normal. While this is generally good news, this also means the state could deal with more drought issues over time.
Overall, the official forecast for the Central Pacific basin calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones; a near-normal season has 4-5, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
“Hurricane season in the Central Pacific region is likely to be below average this year,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of La Nina this summer, which typically contributes to less tropical cyclone activity across the central Pacific Ocean basin.”
According to NOAA, La Nina typically increases wind shear in the central Pacific, making it harder for storms to develop.
Forecasters are quick to point out that the seasonal outlook is a general guide and doesn’t predict whether or how many of these storms will impact Hawaii.
“As we look towards our coming hurricane season, we must prepare with the real possibility in mind that a hurricane could impact our community,” said Chris Brenchley, the Director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Any actions we take now, however small, can make a difference in how resilient our households and communities will be in the event of a storm.”
While La Nina will help tamp down tropical cyclone threats, it may also impact much needed rain from falling across the state later this year too. According to Kevin Kodama, Hydrologist with the Honolulu office of the National Weather Service, says Dry Season, which runs May through September), may be very dry this year in Hawaii.
Kodama says, “Impacts, once they start to occur, are expected to be worse for non-irrigated agriculture, water systems dependent on surface water diversions, and residents relying on rainfall catchment.” He adds, “Due to late wet-season rainfall, significant wildfire risk is expected to develop later than normal in the late-July to early-August time frame.”
