
According to the National Hurricane Center, a new potential tropical cyclone is taking shape in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As such, starting at 4pm today, the Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin initiating advisories for a system they will label “Potential Tropical Cyclone #15”.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday.
“Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system,” cautions the NHC. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.”
Due to the threat of this storm, the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the border with Belize northward to Tulum. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
Global computer forecast guidance is in agreement that this will be a Central America system and not a Gulf of Mexico storm nor U.S. coast threat. Forecast models project the system will slide across Central America into the Pacific where the system may redevelop.
For now, the National Hurricane Center is sharing these two key messages:
- An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and
high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. - Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night.
Should this system become a named tropical storm, it would be called Nadine.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any other tropical cyclone to form for at least the next 7 days.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through to the end of November.