Updated Crash Forecast Puts Eastern U.S. on Alert from Soviet Union Spacecraft

The out of control spacecraft could crash anywhere under one of the lines on this map. The Yellow Icon represents the location of object at midpoint of reentry window; the blue line indicates the ground track uncertainty prior to middle of the reentry window, while the ticks are displayed at 5-minute intervals. Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track. Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris. Image: Aerospace Corporation — One single pass by the doomed Soviet Union spacecraft has it threatening areas from Louisiana to Maine with a potential impact. Image: Aerospace Corporation

UPDATE: May 10, 2025: The spacecraft crashed back on Earth at 2:24 am ET. Details on those impacts can be found here:
https://weatherboy.com/spacecraft-launched-by-soviet-union-in-1972-crashed-back-on-earth-today/ The original article appears below unedited.

With the crash of a Soviet Union spacecraft expected late tonight or early tomorrow, space debris expert Aerospace Corporation has updated their analysis to show potential impact locations around the world and around the United States. In the United States, the potential impact zone is located along a single line that stretches from the southwestern Louisiana coast through Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. They also believe impact would occur within 4 hours before or after 1:46 am ET tonight

According to Aerospace Corporation which monitors and forecasts where objects returning from space will enter the Earth’s atmosphere and possibly crash on Earth, they have eliminated vast areas of the U.S. no longer under threat and now only show one potential orbital path causing potential trouble for the United States.

Unlike most debris re-entering the Earth’s orbit which burns up upon interacting with the planet’s dense atmosphere, this spacecraft is hardened and is expected to crash into Earth as a whole object. According to NASA, the Cosmos 482 spacecraft , also called by Russians the Kosmos 482, is forecast to return to Earth sometime before May 13 with experts suggesting May 10 will be the most likely day for impact.

A museum replica of the Venera 8 descent craft, thought to be identical to Cosmos-482. Image: NASA

The former Soviet Union’s Cosmos 482 was launched back in 1972. Unfortunately, due to a mishap after launch, the payload of that mission were were marooned in Earth orbit, specifically the spacecraft’s lander capsule intended to parachute onto the surface of Venus. This landing module, which weighs 1,091 pounds, is highly probable to reach the surface of Earth in one piece as it was designed to withstand 300 G’s of acceleration and 100 atmospheres of pressure for its original mission to Venus. Other components from the doomed mission made its way back to Earth in the days after the March 1972 launch; the payload separated into four pieces shortly after launch, several of which reentered over New Zealand on April 3 just three days after launch.

Because the large lander capsule is tumbling out of control back to Earth, the precise time and location of impact isn’t known. Scientists believe, based on its current trajectory and orbit, it will crash somewhere in between 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south latitude. Beyond the U.S., there are many other countries threatened by the potential impact of this out-of-control spacecraft.

But a crash into your own backyard is possible too.

On average, 100-200 tons of space junk re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner every year. While most of the objects are small and harmless and do burn-up prior to reaching the Earth’s surface, large objects like this spacecraft from the former Soviet Union can bring harm to the surface if they survive re-entry.

If the rocket were to create damage in another country, there are international treaties in place that would make the launching country potentially liable for damages. That happened in 1978 when a Soviet reconnaissance satellite Kosmos 954 made an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere over Canada. Debris eventually crashed into Canada’s Northwest Territories, depositing toxic waste into the soil at the crash site. Citing the the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and 1972 Space Liability Convention, the Canadian government decided to use the Liability Convention to make the U.S.S.R. pay for damages. After a period of negotiation, the Soviet Union agreed to pay Canada 6 million Canadian dollars for damage. However, it is unclear whether the full amount was ever paid.

The treaties also state that countries keep ownership of objects they launch into space, even after those objects reenter and return to earth. It is also worth noting that the treaty says that the launching country is also internationally liable for damages. While the treaty provides that “a launching State shall be absolutely liable to pay compensation for damage caused by its space objects on the surface of the Earth or to aircraft, and liable for damage due to its faults in space,” the United States would need to negotiate on your behalf with Russia. Private individuals would be unable to bring Russia to court to pay for damages.

The Aerospace Corporation is one entity tracking the out-of-control rocket.In 2020, Aerospace Corporation tracked the falling rocket, providing updates to its forecast up until impact time. In March of 2018, Aerospace also tracked a falling Chinese space station. It eventually crashed into the ocean. The Aerospace Corporation performs objective technical analyses and assessments for a variety of government, civil, and commercial customers; it is an independent, non-profit corporation operating within the space industry.