Hurricane Lowell continues to march north and east closer to Hawaii, but is doing so with a more eastern jog than initially thought. The storm is also dramatically increasing in size, with a very wide wind field. Because the storm is larger and tracking more east, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Kauai County while a Tropical Storm Warning is up for Honolulu County which covers the island of Oahu.

According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Lowell was 275 miles south-southwest of Lihue on the island of Kauai and about 310 miles southwest of Honolulu on the island of Oahu. With maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, the minimum central pressure is down to 955 mb or 28.20″.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau, and for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of Oahu including the city of Honolulu and the famous Waikiki Beach. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

Lowell is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph. A north-northeastward to northward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Lowell is expected to pass near or just west of Niihau tonight and early Tuesday. If the storm continues to jog more east than north, direct landfall could be possible on Niihau and even Kauai. Lowell is then forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.

Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Lowell is forecast to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands.

Multiple hazards will impact Hawaii: damaging winds, flooding rains, high surf and waves, and tornadoes.

Hurricane conditions are expected in Kauai County beginning this afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and
leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Oahu beginning this afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon.

The wind field within Lowell continues to expand. Hurricane force winds now extend up to 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The worst of the winds are on the eastern side of the storm which will impact the western Hawaii islands.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 16 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Oahu and Maui county, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 10 inches possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big Island including areas hit hard by Hurricane Lala just weeks ago.

The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. If the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, the water could reach 2-4 feet heights above ground along the south coast of Kauai and the island of Niihau and up to 1′ elsewhere around Kauai and the island of Oahu. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes are also possible across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands. Waterspouts are also likely in coastal waters around the islands.

Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands.